Match Preview
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UCL x Europa x Conference League Preview – (9th – 11th Mar)
This preview, we look at all 6 semi-final clashes across Europe’s top 3 Cup competitions, starting with a mouth-watering tie between reigning Champions League winners, Real Madrid and treble hopefuls, Manchester City. Before we do, head to our Cross Sport Specials page to check out some other special offers we have. You can also read about our new feature; the Pick 11 Jackpot Bet here.
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Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
These two teams are coming off very crucial 2–1 wins over the weekend as they prepare for this huge game. For Real Madrid, a 2-1 win over Osasuna in the Copa del Rey final, courtesy a brace from Rodrygo, was enough to give them their 3rd title of the season following successes in the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup. Manchester City also had a brace-scorer of their own in İlkay Gündoğan, whose first half double helped secure all 3 points against Leeds United as they maintained their lead at the top of the Premier League. Historically, both sides are evenly matched in head-to-head games with each team winning 3 games apiece in their eight meetings and drawing two.
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 Champions League matches, with no goals conceded in 346 minutes since Mo Salah’s goal for Liverpool at Anfield. However, their solid defensive record could be tested by Manchester City, who have scored in 20 consecutive matches across all competitions, winning 17 and drawing 3. Manchester City have won 3 of their last 4 encounters with Real Madrid, but their most recent clash saw a dramatic comeback by Real Madrid, with two late goals from Rodrygo in the 90th and 91st minutes followed by a Benzema penalty in extra time, securing a 3-1 victory and a place in the finals. Although Pep Guardiola has a respectable record against Real Madrid with just 5 losses in 21 games, he will be wary of the fact that 2 of those losses came in 15 games while managing Barcelona, while the other 3 losses came in 6 games while managing Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
Real Madrid have had a good record against English teams at the Santiago Bernabéu and will lean on this psychological advantage to put them in a good position heading into next week’s second leg. The 14-time champions have lost just 4 home games to English sides, winning 10 and drawing 4. However, a Manchester City win on Tuesday would see the Citizens become only the first team to do so twice after picking up a 2-1 victory there in February 2020 – something Los Blancos would want to avoid.
Real Madrid Form: W-L-W-L-W
Manchester City Form: W-W-W-W-W
These two football juggernauts have produced goals in recent Champions League games. Real Madrid’s last 4 games has seen them score 8 goals while Manchester City has scored 9 in that period – a combined 17 goals. With this tie featuring last season’s golden boot winner, Karim Benzema and this year’s run-away top scorer, Erling Haaland, we should have goals on our hands.
Predictions:
- Double Chance: Real Madrid to win or Draw @1.64
- Over 2.5 goals @1.72
- King’s Combo: Benzema & Haaland both to score @4.50
Milan vs. Inter
As the old saying goes, a single picture can is worth a thousand words, and one of the most iconic photos in the history of this sport does just that. The picture depicts Inter’s Marco Materazzi leaning on Milan’s Rui Costa while both players watch as the San Siro pitch is engulfed in flares by the fans during their UEFA Champions League match on April 12, 2005. It symbolizes the intense rivalry, raw emotions, and camaraderie between the two teams. The image speaks volumes where words fall short in capturing the essence of the encounter between these arch-rivals.
This will be the fifth time these two sides meet in the Champions League, with Inter yet to secure a win against Milan, who have emerged victorious twice, while two matches have ended in a draw. Milan’s two wins came during the infamous 2005 fixture when the seven-time champions triumphed with a 2-0 first-leg win and a 1-0 second-leg win.
Inter have hit form at the right time and will aim to continue that run on Wednesday. 5 successive wins across the Coppa Italia and Serie A has seen them reach the final of the former and move into 4th place in the latter. Romelu Lukaku has been instrumental to this fine form with the Belgian striker scoring 3 and assisting 3 in his last 3 Serie A game. Following his comeback from multiple injuries that saw him miss most of the first half of the season, hitting form at the business end of the season is a huge positive for the club.
Milan’s recent inconsistent performances in the league have seen them drop to 5th place, putting their chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League in jeopardy. This could lead to them being more aggressive in their approach to Wednesday’s game against their neighbors, Inter. To win this, Milan will have to rely on their defense. The Rossoneri have conceded just once in their last 6 Champions League games despite facing 86 shots (27 on target) and an xG of 6.8. The match will mark the fourth time these two teams have faced off, with Milan winning the first encounter (3-2), but losing the other two (0-3 and 0-1). The last time Milan lost 3 games to their Inter in one season was in 1994/95 ]while the last time they failed to score against them in three consecutive games was between 1979 and 1980.
Milan Form: D-W-D-D-W
Inter Form: W-W-W-W-W
The four Champions League meetings between these two Milanese neighbors have only featured five goals, as the games tend to be cagey. This trend has also been observed in their individual campaigns this season, with only one of Inter’s knockout Champions League games producing over 1.5 goals, the same as Milan. It is also worth noting that there is a low probability of a red card being shown. Although historically feisty, this game has produced fewer red cards compared to other heated rivalries. In fact, since September 2015, only two red cards have been shown in this fixture, despite 22 games being played.
Predictions:
AS Roma vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Roma’s current season is reminiscent of José Mourinho’s first season in charge of Manchester United. In the 2016/17 season, Mourinho seemed to have accepted that his Red Devils wouldn’t make the Top 4, so he shifted his focus on winning the Europa League. He succeeded in doing so, which secured automatic qualification for the Champions League. Now, the Special One is facing a similar challenge in Italy. Roma has gone winless in four league games and dropped from the fourth position to the seventh. Additionally, Mourinho has had multiple clashes with referees, which has resulted in unfavorable calls against his team. With just four games remaining in Serie A, Roma’s chances of getting back into the Top 4 are diminishing every day. Therefore, Mourinho is likely to shift his attention to winning the Europa League. Fortunately, Roma has a wealth of experience in major European knockout ties, having progressed from 10 of their last 11 such ties. This experience could be the deciding factor in their upcoming tie.
Bayer Leverkusen’s impressive 14-game unbeaten run finally came to an end over the weekend with a 2-1 loss to Koln. Xabi Alonso has transformed what was once a relegation-threatened season into a successful one, with his team currently in the Top 6 and a European semi-final for the first time since the 2001/02 season. Since Alonso’s arrival at Leverkusen, only Bayern Munich (47) and Borussia Dortmund (46) have collected more points than his side (43). Leverkusen’s recent 4-1 win at Union Saint Gilloise was one of their best attacking displays of the season, and Alonso will be urging his players to replicate that clinical form in a game where they will likely have the bulk of possession. The duo of Moussa Diaby and Jeremie Frimpong have been instrumental to Leverkusen’s success in the Bundesliga, and José Mourinho will aim to shut them down. Diaby leads the team in both goals and assists, with nine and eight, respectively. Meanwhile, wing-back Frimpong is second on both charts with eight goals and six assists. These impressive statistics have fueled rumors of his potential move to Real Madrid or Manchester United this summer.
AS Roma Form: W-L-D-D-L
Bayer Leverkusen Form: D-W-W-D-L
These two sides have met on 4 occasions in Europe, producing 19 goals – an average of 4.8 goals per game. However, José Mourinho is likely to adopt a very conservative approach to this game and settle for a boring and slim win.
Predictions:
Juventus vs. Sevilla
Juventus ended their five-game winless streak with victories over Leece on Wednesday and AS Roma on Sunday, moving them back to second place in the Serie A table. During their streak, they suffered three 1-0 losses to Sassuolo and Napoli in the league, and Inter in the Coppa Italia semi-final. Serbian striker Dušan Vlahović, who had gone 11 league games without a goal, scored one each in the two recent victories, giving the Old Lady a newfound sense of belief ahead of their upcoming tough game.
In recent years, Sevilla has dominated this competition just as Real Madrid has dominated the Champions League, having won 6 titles since 2006. Since officially changing its name from the UEFA Cup to the Europa League, they have made it to 4 semi-finals and have been crowned champions on all 4 occasions – a trend they hope to continue. With 5 wins in their last 6 games, including an emphatic 3-0 victory over Manchester United in the previous round, the Spanish side comes into this game in better form than their opponents. They have spread the goals around this season, but Moroccan striker Youssef En-Nesyri has been the standout with 13 goals across all competitions. After being key to their comeback against Manchester United in the last round, manager José Luis Mendilibar will rely on him in this game.
Juventus Form: L-L-D-W-W
Sevilla Form: W-W-W-L-W
Sevilla have won each of their last 6 games against Italian clubs in the Europa League, with each win coming in the knock-out stages. Juventus has lost each of their last 2 home games against Spanish opposition, failing to score in either.
Predictions:
West Ham United vs. AZ Alkmaar
Following a crucial 1-0 win over Manchester United in the Premier League, West Ham United have all but secured their survival from relegation, with a comfortable 7-point gap above the drop zone. Now, the Hammers are setting their sights on the Europa Conference League, as they aim to win their first piece of European silverware since the 1964/65 European Cup Winners’ Cup. Despite a lackluster league performance this season, their second consecutive appearance in a European semi-final reflects the excellent job that David Moyes is doing in the east London club. However, they’ll be hoping for better luck than last season, when they were eliminated by the eventual Europa League champions, Eintracht Frankfurt. In this campaign, West Ham has won all of their home games, but they face an AZ Alkmaar side with an equally impressive record of 5 wins in their last 6 fixtures in the competition.
When these two sides meet on Thursday, a London-born manager, Pascal Jansen, will be in the dug-out for AZ Alkmaar. Jansen has done an impressive job since taking over, and has his team at a respectable fourth place in the league. Their 4-2 aggregate victory over Lazio and penalty shootout win against Anderlecht demonstrated their resilience, as they had to come from behind in three of those four matches. With a potent attack and a capable midfield, they are well-equipped to cause an upset at the London Stadium.
West Ham United Form: W-L-L-L-W
AZ Alkmaar Form: L-W-W-W-D
Jarod Bowen will be key in this fixture. He’s been West Ham’s best player in this competition, with 4 goals and 2 assists. Vangelis Pavlidis will be AZ Alkmaar’s. The Greek forward has scored 5 of his team’s 7 goals in this competition.
Predictions:
Fiorentina vs. FC Basel
FC Basel is currently experiencing their worst domestic season in this century, and it’s surprising how well they’re performing in Europe. With 20 league titles to their name and a consistent track record of finishing in the top three of the Swiss League since 2001/02, their current position of 5th place is a significant drop in form. In the Conference League, they’ve not been very convincing as they’ve needed penalties to get past Slovan Bratislava and Nice in the last two rounds.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina is coming off a 1-0 defeat to the recently crowned Italian champions, Napoli. However, they rested several key players in that game and will take heart from some of the positives they showed. They are the heavy favorites to win this match. Despite being stuck in 8th place in the league, La Viola has had a remarkable season in cup competitions. They are in the Coppa Italia final, where they will face Inter, and are likely to reach the final in the Conference League. Their chances of finishing in the top six of the league and securing European football for next season are all but over, so winning either cup competition is crucial for them. So, we expect them to be the more aggressive side. Arthur Cabral has been a standout performer for Fiorentina in Europe, having scored six goals in their last seven Conference League matches.
Fiorentina Form: L-D-W-D-L
FC Basel Form: W-L-W-W-L
Fiorentina have scored twice in 9 of their last 10 European games while Basel have conceded twice in 3 of their last 4 games in this competition.
Predictions:
