Top Bet Tips
Weekend Top Bet Tips: (15th & 16th April)
The race for the Premier League title continues with Arsenal visiting West Ham for a London derby while Manchester City welcome newly appointed Dean Smith and Leicester City to the Etihad. In France, a top of the table clash will see PSG host Lens while we expect Napoli to take a punt on their game against Hellas Verona as they prepare for the UCL clash against Milan. Before we delve into these games, head to our Cross Sport Specials page to check out some of the special offers we have. You can also read about our new feature; the Pick 11 Jackpot Bet here.
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Chelsea vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
It’s difficult to predict how Chelsea will approach the rest of the season as things feel like they can only get worse from here. The 11th-place Londoners currently find themselves closer to the relegation zone than the top four, and with games against Arsenal, Man United, Man City, and Newcastle still to come, they could drop further down. Last time out, they suffered a 2-0 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League, and with the scoreline still respectable, there’s a high chance they could rest many of their key players this weekend ahead of the return leg with Real Madrid. Just like in the defeat to Wolves, the Blues struggled to create and finish chances at the Santiago Bernabéu. N’golo Kante was their brightest attacker on the night, which isn’t a good thing considering how much they have spent on forwards in the past two windows. With Lampard’s side failing to find the back of the net, they’ve now gone four games without a goal, their worst run since 1993, and it’s hard to see this run ending against the spirited Seagulls.
Brighton had gone 14 Premier League games without a win over Chelsea (D4, L10) till their commanding 4-1 win at the Amex in late October. Since then, Brighton have had a wonderful season which has them at 7th position in the league and one win away from making the FA Cup final. They have the 4th best attack in the league (52 goals) and 6th best defense. A major key to Brighton’s season – especially the second half of it – is Japanese forward, Kaoru Mitoma. Mitoma is enjoying his debut season in England and has had 10 goals & 7 assists in all competitions with 14 of those 17 goal contributions coming after the World Cup. Poor officiating in last weekend’s loss to Tottenham robbed him of a chance to add to that tally and the PGMOL were quick to come out and admit their error. Against Chelsea, he’ll once again be the major threat as Roberto De Zerbi and his boys continue their push for European football.
Chelsea Form: D-L-D-L-L
Brighton & Hove Albion Form: W-W-D-W-L
Chelsea have never lost a Premier League game at home against Brighton, conceding just once in 7 Stamford Bridge meetings (W5, D2). But, the Blues have failed to score in 12 different league games this season, their most in a single Premier League campaign.
- Kaoru Mitoma to give 1 or more assists @4.00
- Double Chance: Brighton or draw @1.45
- Over 1.5 goals @1.28
Manchester City vs. Leicester City
Leicester City fans are witnessing a historically poor season, having already lost 19 games – their 2nd worst since they suffered 20 defeats in the 2001/02 when they got relegated. They’re currently on a run of 8 defeats and a draw in their last 9 games and the one stadium you don’t want to head to with that sort of form is the Etihad. There’s been a lot of talk about the new manager bounce following the appointment of Dean Smith, but it’s hard to see that making much of a difference. The last time Dean Smith was in the Premier League, he won just one game in the last 4 months of the 2021/22 season with Norwich, and suffered relegation with 4 games to go. With the Foxes sitting in 19th position, Smith would have to work some magic on that defense which has clearly been their problem this season. Leicester’s 40 league goals tally is the best in the bottom half of the table and is only 4 fewer than 4th place Manchester United. However, their defense, which has conceded 52 times this season and hasn’t kept a clean sheet since mid-November has let them down for months. The 2015/16 champions have faced the most shots from turnover this season (50) and against Man City, they face a side that has scored the most goals from opponents’ high turnover (9).
Man City’s relatively easy dismissal of Bayern Munich made them look scarier than they already have. Prior to that game, Bayern had conceded just twice in the Champions League and had kept 7 clean sheets in 8 games, but the Cityzens wasted no time in putting them to the sword. The win was their 9th in a row, and they’ve scored 31 goals in that span and conceded just 3. In fact, at the Etihad, Man City have a 100% win rate in 2023 and have conceded just 2 goals since February in font of their fans. Erling Haaland was once again on target in their win against Bayern as he set the record for most goals in all competition by a Premier League player – 45 goals. Against Leicester City, however, there’s a chance that Pep Guardiola might opt to split the game time between him and Julian Alvarez (12 goals in all competitions) as he rests the Norwegian for the return leg of the Champions League.
Manchester City Form: W-W-W-W-W
Leicester City Form: L-D-L-L-L
Man City have won 8 and lost 2 of their last 10 meetings with Leicester City in the Premier League, with 4 of those 8 wins coming in their last 4 games.
- King’s Combo: Julian Alvarez to score & Man City to win @2.00
- Over 2.5 goals @1.34
- Score in the first 30 mins @1.42
Paris Saint-Germain vs. RC Lens
PSG will once again have to put their off-pitch issues to the side when they welcome second-place Lens to Paris on Saturday. Just a few days after getting their title challenge back on track following a 2-0 win over his former team, Nice, PSG manager Christophe Galtier was in the center of a leaked email scandal in which he allegedly made racist and Islamophobic remarks about his players. Though he strongly denied this, there are still concerns that this may have rocked the dressing room to its core. On the pitch, though, the Parisians have yet another problem: their home form. They’ve lost three of their last five games at home, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those three. Their back-to-back league defeats at home without a goal are something they haven’t witnessed since the 2009/10 season, and even more worryingly, they haven’t kept a clean sheet at Parc des Princes in seven games, conceding 11 times in that span. Luckily for them, their central defenders—who were absent for most of that stretch—have made their return.
RC Lens will aim to keep their title hopes alive in what should be a tough encounter. They haven’t won the league since the 1997/98 season, and a win would take them to within three points of the top. Lens were 3-1 winners when both sides met at Stade Bollaert-Delelis on New Year’s Day, and they’ll be aiming to complete a league double over the reigning champions. For a side that only returned to Ligue 1 in 2020, getting Champions League football would be a remarkable achievement, but they’re hoping to complete a league win on par with Leicester City’s title victory seven years ago.
Paris Saint-Germain Form: L-W-L-L-W
RC Lens Form: D-L-L-L-L
Lens’ 63 points from 30 games is their highest ever in club history and their 4-game winning streak is the longest in Ligue 1 at the moment. PSG haven’t beaten Lens in their last 3 games (D2, L1) with their last win coming at the start of last season.
Napoli vs. Hellas Verona
Ordinarily, this would have been marked as a win for Napoli, given their superiority against the Hellas Verona, but a look at the league leader’s fixtures would consider a slight rethink. While Luciano Spalletti and his men would love to officially put the league title to bed, a 16 point lead allows them the luxury of turning their focus to what – at this stage of the season – is a higher priority; the Champions League. Having suffered a second defeat to Milan in 10 days, their minds will undoubtedly be on Tuesday’s 2nd leg and so, we could see a few legs rested against Verona. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia could be rested while Victor Osimhen, who is confirmed to return on Tuesday, is also expected to sit this one out. With both Kvaratskhelia and Osimhen expected to be rested, we could see an even more tame Napoli attack and though they have the second worst attack in the league, Hellas Verona won’t get a better chance to take points off Napoli, and we expect them to.
Napoli Form: W-W-L-W-L
Hellas Verona Form: D-D-L-L-W
Verona haven’t won at Napoli in Serie A since 1983 but Napoli’s current form of 2 home losses in 3 presents some cause for concern.
Arsenal vs. West Ham United
Arsenal will aim to extend their fantastic record in London derbies for the season when they visit West Ham on Sunday. The Gunners have won all 5 away London derbies by an aggregate score of 11-0 and would want to make that 6 wins in a row for the first time since 2014 in order to maintain their lead over Manchester City. Mikel Arteta and his men suffered a late heartbreak at Anfield on Sunday after giving up an 87th minute equalizer and then missing a golden opportunity to reclaim their lead deep into stoppage time. The Gunners have showed their resilience in the past and would once again want to do just that with a win over a West Ham side whom they have only lost 3 of their 26 away league games to, having won 9 of the last 14 (D4, L1).
West Ham will lack a bit of freshness ahead of this game. They traveled to Belgium on Thursday for a Europa Conference League quarter-final clash with Gent (1-1) and while history shows their European travels have had little negative impact on their following domestic fixtures this campaign, Arsenal poses a very different threat. 2 wins in their last 3 – the same number they had in the previous 14 – has seen the Hammers move out of the relegation zone and into 14th. However, their 5-1 loss to Newcastle earlier in the month exposed every bit of weakness in their defense and a hungry Arsenal side will aim to exploit them once more.
Arsenal Form: W-L-W-W-D
West Ham United Form: W-W-L-W-D
The Gunners have won 8 league games against the Hammers after conceding first including their earlier meeting at the Emirates which West Ham’s 1-0 lead at halftime was met with 3 unreplied 2nd half goals from Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Eddie Nketiah.
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