Having already touched on what the Nigerian people betting on, we’ll delve into one of them this week; the Over 2.5 Goals bet. Before that, you can head to our Cross Sport Specials page to check out some of the special offers we have.
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Over 2.5 Goals Indicators
“Over 2.5 Goals” bets are becoming one of the most popular as well as rewarding bets on the BetKing platform, and we’ve talked about it’s growing popularity in the past. An Over 2.5 goals bet means you are betting that the total number of goals scored during a match in regulation time (and not including extra time) will be 2 or more, meaning you will win only if there are three or more total goals during the game. As we explained, one reason why it is so popular is because it doesn’t depend on which team wins the match. This means that even if there is a surprise upset, you can still win by correctly predicting the number of goals.
Over the past few weeks/months, there have been emerging trends that have affected the Over 2.5 goals bet across multiple markets and we’ll attempt to break this down the best we can. It is also important to preface this by saying there are always exceptions to rules and trends hence, it is important to stake responsibly.
Multiple World Class Talents In Attack
Stating that teams with multiple world-class players in attack are a lock for hitting Over 2.5 goals is a rather obvious point to make, but things aren’t always as straightforward as they seem. Manchester City have the trio of Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez as well as Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden and so, seem like a good choice for this, right? Well, not really. Games involving the English Champions play out quite differently at the Etihad from how they do on the road. On away grounds, 6 of Man City’s last 10 games have produced 2 goals or fewer. However, at home 17 of their last 20 games have hit the Over 2.5 goals with an astonishing 12 of those 17 hitting a further Over 3.5 goals. This means, statistically, you’re safer if you bet on Over 2.5 goals in Manchester City games at the Etihad.
PSG, with Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr. are a good pick in the Over 2.5 goals category given their vicious attack. Unlike Man City, they’re more free scoring both at home and on away grounds. 16 of the last 20 PSG games have produced Over 2.5 goals, making them a betting favorite in this category. Bayern Munich too is a good choice but, unlike PSG and Man City, their games are a lot more open in the Bundesliga and the DFB Pokal than in the Champions League. Besides the two games against Viktoria Plzen (that featured 5 and 6 goals), only 1 of Bayern’s remaining 5 games in the UCL produced Over 2.5 goals even though they won all 5 – a clear indication of their more conservative approach in European games. Domestically, however, 10 of their last 15 games produced Over 2.5 goals.
As the exception to the rule, we have Real Madrid. On paper, the reigning World and European champions seem like a lock for Over 2.5 goals, but only 16 of their last 30 games have produced this. At just 53%, this is a bigger risk to take compared to the other 3 teams with similar quality of attacking talent.
Marcus Rashford’s form is the perfect example of this indicator. The Manchester United forward is enjoying his best season with a career-high 25 goals scored so far, with 17 of those coming in the 19 games after the World Cup. In those 19 games, 13 have featured Over 2.5 goals, making the Red Devils a good bet for this as long as the Englishman’s impressive run continues. Interestingly, 5 of the 6 games in which Man Utd have scored under 2.5 goals has seen them keep clean sheets meaning the less pressure they face in defense, the more comfortable they are scoring a goal or two then seeing the game out. This is also the case with Napoli & Victor Osimhen. The Nigerian striker has scored in 8 consecutive Serie A games, but when they keep a clean sheet, they’re more likely to score 2 goals. In fact, 5 of Napoli’s last 10 games have been won with a 2-0 scoreline, which means caution should be taken when betting on them.
Arsenal loanee, Folarin Balogun is having a brilliant season at Reims over in Ligue 1 and is currently the league’s second-highest scorer (15) behind only Kylian Mbappé (17). His scoring form has made Reims an entertaining side to watch especially at home where 4 of their last 5 games have produced Over 2.5 goals, compared to 0 in their last 5 away games where they usually struggle. Still in Ligue 1, Alexandre Lacazette is a player to take note of. The former Arsenal man’s impressive run may be flying under the radar, but he does have 18 goals (and 5 assists) in 26 games this season. As a result, each of the last 5 Lyon games has produced Over 2.5 goals, with 10 of their last 15 also hitting that number.
League Bullies At Home
League Bullies is a loose term used to refer to teams who are very likely to win their domestic leagues due to the gulf in talent between them and the rest. Teams like Manchester City, PSG and Bayern fall into this category, but we already talked about them earlier. Most of these league bullies don’t have the most rewarding odds for “straight wins” when playing domestically, but a deeper look at reveals there is some value in betting on their games to produce Over 2.5 goals while at home. The best example of this is Scotland’s Celtic.
10 of the last 11 Scottish Premier Leagues have been won by The Bhoys which shows their dominance. This season, they’ve won all 13 league games at home, and 10 of those 13 games have produced Over 2.5 goals. Ajax Aren’t so far off in the Eredivisie. In a run stretching back to late 2021, 18 of their 22 league games at the Johan Cryuff Arena have produced Over 2.5 goals while for Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatian League, 13 of their last 15 at home have hit this bet.
Average League Goals
As contradictory as this sounds, this is straightforward and risky in equal proportions.
Just looking up which leagues produce the most goals on average can be a good indicator, but there’s always more to it. That said, the Top 5 leagues that produce the most goals on average are:
- Bundesliga (Germany) – 3.20 Goals Per Game
- Challenge League (Switzerland) – 3.17 Goals Per Game
- Premier League (Russia) – 3.14 Goals Per Game
- Premier League (Wales) – 3.13 Goals Per Game
- Proximus League (Belgium) – 3.09 Goals Per Game
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