EFL Cup

History to be Made

Carabao Cup Final Preview: Manchester United v Newcastle United

Headline: Carabao Cup Final / Man Utd To Win?? / Carabao Final Betting / Man Utd v Newcastle

England’s first domestic trophy of the season of the up for grabs and, for once, Manchester City aren’t in the final. Instead, it’s their neighbours, Manchester United led by first year manager, Erik ten Hag and Newcastle United who have made it to Wembley. Before we dive into that, you can head to our Cross Sport Specials page to check out some of the special offers we have.

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The proverbial “no man’s land” in football is the one place a player – especially a goal-keeper – would not want to get caught in. Think about it as the equivalent of Ilha da Queimada Grande, (also known as Snake Island) in Brazil which has a population of 0 – literally, it has zero inhabitants. Getting caught in no man’s land could almost spell doom for the victim and Newcastle shot-stopper, Nick Pope, found that out the hard way.

A comical misjudgment of Alisson’s long pass to Salah saw the Magpies goalie sprint towards the ball with the intention of heading it out. Instead, he not-only handled the ball, but he caught it and, even worse, almost injured teammate Kevin Trippier in his feeble attempt to get rid of the evidence. As a result, Nick Pope – who has kept 10 clean sheets in his last 14 games with four shutouts in five Carabao Cup appearances – will be out of what is undoubtedly Newcastle’s biggest game in well over a generation.

Sunday’s much anticipated final at Wembley will be a chance for one team to mark its new era with a trophy. For Manchester United, it’ll be Erik ten Hag’s first title in what the club will be hoping is a long and fruitful time together. For Newcastle, this title – which would end a 68-year search for a domestic trophy – would officially usher in the Saudi Arabian led era and further solidify them as a threat to the traditional Top 6.

Heading into this game, the name on everyone’s lips isn’t Marcus Rashford (who has been the most in-form goalscorer in football in 2023) or the duo of Casemiro & Raphaël Varane (who have played in the biggest club games in football and delivered great performances), neither is it about Miguel Almirón and his impressive season with the Magpies. The player everyone wants to talk about is Loris Karius, the Newcastle third choice goalie.

The German goalie became famous for his calamitous performance at the 2018 Champions League final, when a series of jaw-dropping errors gifted Real Madrid a 3-1 victory against his team, Liverpool. That game sealed his fate at Anfield and since then, he’s bounced around a bit. He played 2 seasons with Besiktas before playing the 2020/21 with Union Berlin where he made just 5 appearance. He’s not made a single senior appearance since the end of the 2020/21 season and with Nick Pope suspended and 2nd choice, Martin Dúbravka cup-tied, a redemption-seeking Loris Karius is set to finally make his debut for the club. Coincidentally, he kept his first Premier League clean sheet against Manchester United back in October 2016, and, if he can repeat the feat on Sunday, redemption would be his.

For the Red Devils, they’ve navigated a very busy 2023 that has seen them play once every 3–4 days and come into this as heavy favorites despite the heavy legs. Victory over Barcelona in the Europa League Round of 32 isn’t exactly what a club of their standard might long for, but it did highlight the progress made under Erik ten Hag.

In the league cup, the Red Devils have been very explosive, with an aggregate score of 14-2 in their 5 wins leading up to the final. They’ve averaged 6.20 shots on target per game and have a goal conversion rate of 40% per shot on Target. To simplify, Man United scores a goal every 2.5 shots on Target. Newcastle have also won all 5 of their games but have been more conservative in their approach. They have an aggregate score of 6-1 and averaged 5.20 shots on target with a goal conversion rate of 20% however, just like Erik ten Hag’s side, they’ve kept 4 clean sheets in those 5 games.

Head to Head

The last two meetings between these two sides have ended in a stalemate. Prior to that, Man Utd had enjoyed 3 consecutive wins against Newcastle, with their last coming on Cristiano Ronaldo’s heartwarming return to Old Trafford when he grabbed a brace to seal a 4-1 victory. Since then, there has been little difference between both teams, which has been down to Newcastle’s massive investment in the first team as well as Eddie Howe’s outstanding coaching.

Manchester United 0 – 0 Newcastle United
Newcastle United 1 – 1 Manchester United
Manchester United 4 – 1 Newcastle United

Head to Head

Manchester United	*Category*	Newcastle United
45	Major Trophies	11
5	League Cups	0
9	League Cup Finals	1
£832m	Squad Cost	£436m
13	£30m+ Signings in Squad	5
£227m	Spending In Last Three Transfer Windows	£264m

Manchester United Form: The Red Devils have been on a remarkable run, with just 1 loss in their last 20 games. The run is even more impressive when you consider they’ve played every 3–4 days on average since New Year’s Eve. Something noteworthy is a pattern we pointed out earlier in the week which highlighted the second half of Manchester United’s games producing more goals than the first. With the Red Devils’ second half comeback over Barcelona on Thursday night, that streak is now at 8 games and @2.07, presents wonderful value for money. Manchester United’s last 5 games: D-W-D-W-W

Newcastle United Form: No win in the month of February has seen the Magpies drop to 5th in the Premier League and what was once an impregnable defense has been breached for four games in a row – this comes after keeping 8 clean sheets in 9 games. With their first and second choice goalies unavailable, this streak could get extended. Newcastle United’s last 5 games: W-W-D-D-L

Manchester United Team News and Expected Line-Up: After picking up a knock during Thursday night’s victory over Barcelona, Marcus Rashford was taken off with 2 minutes left on the clock . The move felt more of a precautionary one than a necessity, and the Red Devils’ star forward – who has 24 goals in 37 games – should be fit for Sunday. Anthony Martial is also training and while a start may be too soon for the Frenchman, we could see him on the bench. Here’s how Man Utd are expected to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 formation: De Gea / Wan-Bissaka – Varane – Martinez – Shaw / Casemiro – Fred / Antony – Bruno Fernandes – Rashford / Weghorst

Newcastle United Team News and Expected Line-Up: As already elaborated on, Nick Pope will be the biggest absentee due to his suspension and Loris Karius is expected to take his place. New signing, Anthony Gordon is cup-tied and will also be unavailable. The Magpies will also be welcoming back suspended midfielder, Bruno Guimarães after the Brazilian missed 3 games. Joelinton was taken off in the 71st min against Liverpool due to an injury but he’s back in training and should be fit for the final. Here’s how Eddie Howe is expected to line up in his preferred 4-3-3 formation: Karius / Trippier – Schar – Botman – Burn / Longstaff – Guimarães – Joelinton / Almiron – Wilson – Saint-Maximin

Predictions: