Croatia produced one of the most impressive performances of the competition to come back and beat Canada last time out. It was not so much the result as the fact that, even after conceding the earliest goal at the World Cup, they did not panic. It is the mark of a team at peace with its own ability.
For their part, Belgium look to be the opposite. The Red Devils are over the hill, looked jaded in defeat to Morocco, and have no clarity to their play. They were fortunate against Canada, but luck can only last for so long, and Morocco, despite creating fewer chances than the North Americans, dealt them the defeat their performance deserved.
Croatia need a draw here to secure passage to the Round of 16, while Belgium need a win to be sure; a draw would only suffice for the Red Devils if Canada beat Morocco, an outcome that is not unlikely. Nevertheless, if Belgium do not come out swinging for this one, this generation of Red Devils is truly done.
Both teams to score at 1.77
Canada v Morocco
Canada can hold their heads up high. They may have become only the second team to be eliminated from the World Cup, but they gave a tremendous account of themselves, pressing Belgium to distraction and taking the lead against Croatia. What a fortnight it has been for them!
They will get one last chance to get points on the board when they take on a Morocco team who are themselves on the verge of doing the improbable. Shutting both Croatia and Belgium out was impressive in itself, but actually beating the Red Devils sent shockwaves through the tournament. For a country that made a coaching change less than three months to the tournament, going into the final group match in such a strong position would have been beyond their wildest dreams coming in.
The Atlas Lions need a win to make certain of their progression, and you would not bet against them getting it. Canada struggle to defend counterattacks, and that offers Morocco a potential route to success.
Mexico to win or draw and over 1.5 total goals at 1.68 odds
Japan v Spain
Things were going so well for Japan following that win over Germany, but then they gave up a late goal to Costa Rica and life became complicated. With the Germans drawing against Spain, Japan now need to win here in order to progress.
Their task will be made no easier by the fact that Spain need a result here to tie up qualification. Their massive goal difference does wonders for them, sure, but they cannot afford to completely put their feet up. That means they have an incentive to actually try here, virtually extinguishing the last crumb of hope Japan may have had.
Stranger things have happened in football, but regardless of the draw with Germany, this Spain team is quite special, and at their best they are almost impossible to contain. Questions will be asked about their game management in the latter stages of the Germany match, but they were never going to roll over them like they did Costa Rica. Japan, though, are a lot more manageable.
Spain to win/draw and over 2.5 goals at 1.92
Costa Rica v Germany
Germany’s goose was practically cooked following their opening match, but results in the second round of matches conspired to place their destiny back in their hands. Beyond all permutations and caveats, they simply must win here, while hoping that the improbable does not happen in the other match.
Their optimism coming in will be based on the fact that they are facing the worst team in the group, which Costa Rica undoubtedly are. Sure, they secured a smash and grab against Japan, but in truth they offered nothing all game beyond physical application and their goal was a complete fluke. Those factors are unlikely to come together again: Germany do not have Shuichi Gonda in goal, for example.
With the impressive Jamal Musiala and striker Niklas Fullkrug making a name for himself, they should have too much for Costa Rica. However, the Japan result will prevent complacency, and that can only be a good thing for them.