American Football Bet Tips
10 NFL Betting Tips For Week 10
In Week 10, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seahawks head to Munich, Germany for Sunday’s early kickoff while the Bears and their new-found identity take on the Lions in an NFC North divisional rivalry. Also in the NFC North, the Packers welcome back former Head Coach Mike McCarthy, the man who brought them their last Super Bowl.
He comes with his Dallas Cowboys, who are bloodthirsty and would love nothing more than to hand reigning League MVP, Aaron Rodgers, a historic 6th consecutive loss.
Note: The figures in the brackets represent each team’s win-loss-tie record.
EXTRA POINT BETS
All bets come with some risks, especially in the NFL, but these Extra Point Bets are some of the easy ones to hit.
Miami Dolphins (6-3) v Cleveland Browns (3-5)
Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in both Adjusted QB Rating (80.1) & Passer Rating (115.9) while Tyreek Hill’s 1,104 Receiving Yards through 9 games is a new NFL record and on pace to break Megatron’s record. Simply put, they love passing the ball.
The Browns, on the other hand, love to run the ball, with star Running Back, Nick Chubb, leading the league in Rushing Touchdowns (10) while being second in Rushing Yards (841) behind Derrick Henry. Both styles have yielded points, and both offenses rank top 10 in scoring. Sadly for the Browns, they’ve struggled to convert this to wins.
While the Dolphins are heavy favorites and should see out the win, this could be yet another high scoring game similar to last week when both teams scored over 30 points each.
Prediction: Miami Dolphins to win @1.55 and Over 48.5 Total Points @1.82
Tennessee Titans (5-3) v Denver Broncos (3-5)
Last week, I compared the Titans to soccer’s Atlético Madrid, and it was a complement. They’re a team that knows their identity and own it. They’re last in Receptions (51), last in Receiving Yards (658) and last in Receiving Touchdowns (1). You won’t be mistaken if you said they’ve completely abandoned the passing game and lean heavy on running the ball. They came very close to pulling off a huge upset win at Kansas City, with the game going to overtime despite Patrick Mahomes throwing for 446 yards. They controlled the clock to perfection and ran the ball effectively. It was pure old school football. Against a Broncos side that is still all over the place, I expect them to bounce back from last week’s defeat and record their 6th win in 7 games.
Prediction: Tennessee Titans to win @1.65
New York Giants (6-2) v Houston Texans (1-6-1)
I have the Giants winning this. Just like the Titans, they’re a run-heavy offense and excel in very close games. The Texans, on the other hand, have the worst Run Defense in the league, which makes this a matchup every Giants’ fan would relish. It’ll be an ugly, feisty and low scoring game with the Texans known for not giving up easily, but the Giants should take this.
Prediction: New York Giants to win @1.42
Philadelphia Eagles (8-0) v Washington Commanders (4-5)
Over the course of the season, we’ve learned to give the Commanders some respect. With every possible off-field distraction thrown at them this season as well as injuries in key positions, they’ve won a respectable 4 games, including a 23-21 win over the Packers last month. They’ve only given up 25 or more points twice this season (to the Cowboys and Lions) and their defense generally holds up well against most offenses. But, they’re up against the undefeated Eagles, who beat them in the reverse fixture back in Week 3 (24-8) when they met in Washington. The Eagles should extend their winning streak to 9 games, but this could be a low scoring game since it’s a divisional rivalry.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles to win @1.20 and Under 44.5 Total Points @1.88
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) v Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)
The Jaguars snapped their 5 game losing streak with a 27-20 comeback victory over the Raiders last weekend and even more impressive, they held them to 3-12 conversion on 3rd Down. They’re also one of the few teams with a losing record but a positive Points Differential (21) which shows how good they are at scoring. But, the Chiefs are the Chiefs, and a victory for the Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium would take some divine intervention. However, there might be additional value in going for a high scoring game in addition to a Chiefs win.
Prediction: Kansas Chiefs to win @1.23 and Over 50.5 Total Points @1.82
RED ZONE BETS
The Red Zone Bets are our dangerous bets. While they’re risky, always remember, “fortune favors the brave”.
Green Bay Packers (3-6) v Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
The Packers have lost 5 games in a row for the first time since 2008, which was in Aaron Rodgers’ first season as a starting QB. Rodgers has never lost 6 games in his career, and the last time the Packers did was in 1988. Rodgers is also 2-7 against the Cowboys as a starter but, as any Packers’ fan would agree, history counts for nothing this time around. The Packers have been abysmal all season and things look like they’re about to get worse.
The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the league and arguably the Defensive Player of the Year in Micah Parsons. Their offense shouldn’t be ignored. The last time we saw them, they dropped 49 points on the Bears and coming off a bye week, they’ve had 14 days to rest and get healthy. There’s also going to be the emotional return of Dallas Cowboys’ Head Coach Mike McCarthy to Green Bay, the city he brought a Super Bowl to alongside Aaron Rodgers back in 2011. That said, these Cowboys just have way too much firepower for a struggling Packers side.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys to win @1.47
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) v Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
Tampa Bay snapped their 3-game losing streak last weekend with a 16-13 victory over the LA Rams. Tom Brady was magnificent in the game winning drive as he surgically ripped apart the Rams defense with ease. Prior to that drive, though, they really struggled, especially in the Run game where they rushed for a measly 51-yards. Luckily for Tampa Bay, they face a Seahawks defense who have allowed the 5th most Rushing Yards all season.
Seattle has been amazing all season, and Pete Carroll is looking like a top candidate for Coach of the Year. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 games, including their last 4 in a row and top the NFC West. They do have a lot of ways to hurt the Bucs. In the air, QB Geno Smith is 4th in Adjusted QB Rating while he ranks (68.1) while he’s thrown the 5th most Touchdowns (15). On the ground, Rookie Running Back Kenneth Walker III leads the league in 4th Quarter Touchdowns (6) which shows just how dangerous he can be in crunch time. This game will be played in Munich, Germany, which takes away Tampa Bay’s home advantage – though their 2-3 record at home makes you wonder if they really have enjoyed that this season.
Prediction: Seahawks to win @2.33
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) v Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1)
These two teams stink, and there’s no better way to put it. The Raiders constantly blow 17-point leads, and they’ve gone from being 7-2 in one-score games last season to being 0-5 this year. Over in Indianapolis, former Center Jeff Saturday was hired as an interim coach after Frank Reich was fired following the 26-3 loss to the Patriots. Jeff Saturday is the first interim/full time Head Coach to be hired in the NFL without any coaching experience in the NFL or College level since the 1960s. As the younger generation would poetically put it, he was hired based on vibes. As poor as the Raiders have been, there’s a good team in there waiting to be unleashed. Blowing 17-point leads is awful, but constantly getting those 17-point leads shows just how good they can be if only they can concentrate for the full 60 mins. They should do that this weekend.
Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders to win @1.43
Chicago Bears (3-6) v Detroit Lions (2-6)
The Bears finally have a quarterback for the future. Last week’s 35-32 loss to the Miami Dolphins was so impressive that the Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel jokingly asked Justin Fields to stop torching his defense. And no, that’s not a typo – the loss was impressive. Justin Fields’ 178 Rushing Yards was the most by a quarterback in a regular-season game in NFL history, breaking the legendary Micheal Vick’s record. The Bears’ 252 Rushing Yards last week made them the only team since the 1976 Steelers to record 225 Rushing Yards in 4 straight games in the Super Bowl era. The Bears haven’t just found a franchise QB, they’ve found an identity.
The Lions recorded their 2nd win of the season against the Packers and they looked good doing it as they forced Aaron Rodgers to throw 3 Red Zone interceptions. However, seeing as they struggle against the Run, I think the Bears have the advantage here.
Prediction: Chicago Bears to win @1.59
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills (6-2) v Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
After missing 3 straight days of practice, it does seem like Josh Allen will miss this game as he continues to nurse a Right Elbow (UCL) injury. Missing your starting Quarterback is bad enough, but missing the front-runner for league MVP? That might be too much to overcome. His backup, Case Keenum, is not a scrub. In fact, a few years ago, Case Keenum was on the Vikings and came very close to sending them to the Super Bowl. But, this is 2022 and Keenum isn’t the player he used to be (hence, why he is a backup).
The Vikings are 7-1 this season; the second-best record behind the undefeated 8-0 Eagles. The stats show that the Vikings aren’t exactly flying high; their defense is 12th in points allowed (20.1 PPG) & the 8th worst in Yards allowed per game (368.1) while their offense is ranked 15th in Yards – nothing impressive on paper. However, as explained last week, their ability to win close games is the best in the league, with 6 of their 7 wins coming by one score. This prediction solely hangs on the availability of Josh Allen. If he does miss the game, Vikings have the advantage and even if he does play, Vikings’ Za’Darius Smith who’s 2nd in sacks in the league (8.5) will try to keep him under pressure.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings To Win @2.48
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