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UEFA Nations League

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England vs Germany 

For several decades, England and Germany have been among the best teams in Men’s football, but the latter was seen as the country with more realistic chances of actually winning international tournaments. 

Now, the tables have flipped. This crop of talented English players, coupled with the decline of the Germany men’s team in recent years, means that England enters a second successive international tournament with a higher likelihood to win than the Germans. Strange times indeed. 

In their UEFA Nations group however, Germany currently has the advantage with England rooted to the bottom of Group 3. England have already been relegated to the second tier of the UEFA Nations League while Germany’s home loss to Hungary leaves them in third place. 

Who wins this one? Read on below to find out! 

Head-to-head record 

Given the quality of the two teams, the H2H record is unsurprising. In 12 games, England and Germany have won 5 games each and split the points twice. 

There have been plenty of goals scored in this fixture too. Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 5 of their games (41.67% of the time) and over 1.5 goals have been scored in 7 games (58.33 % of the time). 

In the last five H2H games between both teams, England has won twice, Germany once and both teams have drawn twice. 

Form guide 

England’s recent stats don’t make for a pleasant reading for their fans. In the last five games, the Three Lions have won just once. In that period, they lost twice and drew two games, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 6 times. (W-L-D-D-L) 

Germany’s record has been marginally better over that period. In their last five games, the Germans have won just once and drawn four games. (D-D-D-D-W) 

 

Team news 

With Kalvin Phillips out injured and at risk of missing the World Cup, Gareth Southgate must decide: Start trying out a new formation or simply replace the Manchester City midfielder for this round of international games and hope he recovers in time for the World Cup? Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Jordan Pickford are also regular starters who have missed the squad either through injury or a loss of form.  

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Fikayo Tomori, James Ward-Prowse and Jarrod Bowen have all been left out of the squad to face Germany while Jack Grealish will miss the game due to a one-game suspension. 

Predicted England starting XI: Aaron Ramsdale; Kyle Walker, Harry McGuire, John Stones; Kieran Trippier, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Ben Chilwell; Phil Foden, Raheem Sterling; Harry Kane (3-4-2-1) 

Germany has improved since Hansu Flick replaced Joachim Loew. The German is tactically flexible and alternates between a traditional 4-2-3-1, a 3-4-2-1, a 3-4-3 and a 4-3-3 easily. Due to the composition of this squad, we think he’ll go with a 4-2-3-1 for Monday’s game. 

Predicted Germany starting XI: Marc-Andre ter Stegen; Jonas Hoffman, Antonio Rudiger, Nicklas Sule, David Raum; Joshua Kimmich, Ilkay Gundogan; Leroy Sane, Thomas Muller, Jamal Musiala; Timo Werner. (4-2-3-1) 

 

Key stats 

  1. England have scored 0.3 goals/game while Germany have scored 2.0 goals/game. 
  1. Worryingly for the host team, they’ve also conceded more goals (6 goals: 1.5 goals/game) than the Germans (5 goals: 1.3 goals/game) 
  1. England average 55.7 of possesion and complete 460.5 accurate passes/game while Germany average 65.6% of possesion and complete 557 accurate passes/game. 
  1. Worryingly, the Germans average more accurate long balls (30 per game) than England (28.8) too. 
  1. Discipline wise, England have accumulated 5 yellow cards and one red card, while Germany have received 7 yellow cards and no red card. 

Prediction 

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